River Avenue Blues

Yanks 4, Blue Jays 3: Bullpen picks up the slack in Sabathia’s return from the disabled list

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Wouldn’t you know it, the Yankees have now won three of their last four games. Four of their last six too. What’s everyone so mad about? The Yankees opened this 18 games in 18 days stretch with a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays on Thursday night.

(Adam Hunger/Getty)

Sabotaged by the Defense
Every game, without fail, the defense costs the Yankees a run. One run if they’re lucky. Lately it’s been multiple runs. CC Sabathia returned from the disabled list Thursday night and looked like Old Man CC, slinging 88-89 mph cutters and backdoor sliders to righties. Twice his defense betrayed him, contributing to the two runs he allowed. Such is life for a Yankees pitcher these days.

Two singles and a grounder put runners at second and third with one out in the third. Ronald Torreyes made a nice play to corral Teoscar Hernandez’s grounder, held the runner at third, and threw to first for the second out. Sabathia was on the verge of escaping the jam! Then Gary Sanchez had a pitch clank off his glove for a run-scoring passed ball. It was a cross up, Sabathia said so after the game, but still. Another example of shoddy defense resulting in a run.

In the next inning, Torreyes made a lazy throw to first base that resulted on a leadoff error. Yangervis Solarte hit the ball hard and Torreyes did a nice job to knock it down and keep it in front of him. The throw to first was too nonchalant and Neil Walker was unable to make the scoop on the short hop. A hit-by-pitch and a well-placed Luke Maile single …

… later, the tying run crossed the plate. How very annoying. Before the game Aaron Boone said Sabathia was on a somewhat limited pitch count in his first start back, so with his pitch count at 71 and Justin Smoak coming up for the third time, Sabathia was yanked. I had no problem with it. The go-ahead run was at second base and, at this point of his career, letting Sabathia face the middle of the lineup a third time is ill-advised.

Sabathia’s final line: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Lots of weak contact too. His average exit velocity allowed Thursday night was 83.7 mph. In a non-close game I imagine Boone would’ve stuck with Sabathia a bit longer in the fifth inning. In the first start back from the disabled list, Sabathia looked pretty good. He looked like the effective late career CC Sabathia. Hopefully his defense helps him (and the rest of the staff) out a bit more going forward.

Manufactured Runs
Certainly not the most awe-inspiring game from the offense, but hey, sometimes you need to scratch out runs and win a close game. The Yankees took a 2-0 second inning lead on a Tyler Wade run-scoring ground out and a Torreyes two-out single juuust over shortstop Aledmys Diaz. Sanchez singled and Walker doubled off the right field wall to set that rally up. Wade put the ball in play and got the run home. Torreyes got the two-out knock.

After the Blue Jays tied the game in the fourth, the Yankees retook the lead in the fifth courtesy of another two-out hit, this time by Didi Gregorius. Torreyes drew a one-out walk — when Torreyes draws a walk, you have to take advantage — and Brett Gardner pulled a single earlier in the inning. Gregorius found a hole with a ground ball pulled to right for the go-ahead base hit. The Yankees went 3-for-6 with runners in scoring position. Timely!

Thankfully, Aaron Judge restored order in the eighth inning with a towering solo home run to left field. It was a sky high drive that I thought was going to land in the second deck, but alas, it fell a few rows short and settled into the field level seats. Confirmed: Life is better when their Tyler Clippard is facing your middle of the lineup than vice versa. The Judge homer gave the Yankees a 4-2 lead.

The Bullpen was … Good?
Kinda weird that the bullpen having a strong game qualifies as noteworthy right now, but that’s baseball (and bullpens). Sabathia got the early hook in the fifth inning and, with the go-ahead run on second base and the 3-4 hitters due up, Boone went right to Chad Green, who made quick work of Smoak and Solarte. Green tossed a 1-2-3 sixth and Dellin Betances tossed a 1-2-3 seventh. Go Dellin.

Things got dicey in the eighth inning. I guess we should be happy three of the four relievers were sharp rather than only one or two of the four. David Robertson got the ball in the eighth because that’s who should get the ball in the eighth. A single and two walks later, the bases were loaded with no outs. Yikes! Good thing Judge hit the homer to stretch the lead to 4-2, huh?

Robertson kicked it into Houdini mode after that. He struck out Kevin Pillar, then gave up a single to center to pinch-hitter Curtis Granderson that scored a run and cut the lead to 4-3. After that, Robertson fanned Randall Grichuk and coaxed an inning-ending fly ball from Maile to limit the damage. Bases loaded with no outs and a two-run lead? Escaping with a one-run lead is a good outcome in my book.

Aroldis Chapman of course got the ball in the ninth and he hadn’t pitched since last Friday in Detroit, and when Chapman has a long layoff, he can be a little wild. He was not wild. He was dominant. Chapman struck out the side in the ninth on 12 pitches. His fastballs averaged 98.6 mph and topped out at 100.9 mph. Four misses out of seven swings too. It was the best Aroldis has looked in the early going. The bullpen: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K. That’ll do.

(Adam Hunger/Getty)

Leftovers
Good game for Giancarlo Stanton. For real. He went 1-for-3 with an infield single and a walk, and saw three full counts. Stanton did get thrown out at second to end the seventh inning trying to advance on a passed ball, which seemed like classic case of trying to do too much. Next time let Gary Sanchez hit with a man on base, Giancarlo. Good things tend to happen.

The Yankees had eight hits as a team and no individual hitter had more than one. Wade was the only starter without a hit and he got a run in with a ground ball, so he contributed. The Yankees drew four walks (Judge, Stanton, Torreyes, Aaron Hicks) and struck out only three times (Gardner, Judge, Walker). It’s easy to forget about him because he missed all that time, but Hicksie is hitting .286/.423/.619 (189 wRC+) in the early going. He’s pretty rad.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
MLB.com has the video highlights while ESPN has the box score and updated standings. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
This four-game series is just getting started. The Yankees and Blue Jays will be back at it Friday night with a normal 7pm ET start. Sonny Gray and Marco Estrada are the scheduled starters.

DotF: Sheffield and Nelson have strong starts

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The Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders had a scheduled off-day.

Double-A Trenton Thunder (4-2 win over Erie)

  • 2B Gosuke Katoh: 1-4, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
  • CF Rashad Crawford: 0-2, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K
  • RF Trey Amburgey: 2-3, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB — 6-for-16 (.375) in his last five games
  • LHP Justus Sheffield: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 WP, 4/3 GB/FB — 67 of 98 pitches were strikes (68%) … 17/4 K/BB in 11.2 innings in his last two starts after a 5/6 K/BB in 4.1 innings in his first start

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Game 17: Sabathia’s Return

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(Presswire)

It’s no secret the Yankees have struggled to prevent runs so far this season. They’ve averaging 5.44 runs allowed per game, fifth most in baseball, and things have been especially bad lately. The Yankees have allowed at least six runs in six of their last seven games, and in seven of their last nine games. It’s the pitching and defense. The defense has been so bad Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch the Yankees will hold a defensive workout tomorrow.

CC Sabathia makes his hopefully triumphant return from the disabled list tonight, and while he is no longer the pitcher he was in his prime, he’s still perfectly capable of giving the Yankees five or six good innings. He wiggled through five innings of one earned run ball against this same Blue Jays team a few weeks ago. A repeat performance would be welcome tonight. Hopefully the defense decides to cooperate. Here are the lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Didi Gregorius
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. CF Aaron Hicks
7. 1B Neil Walker
8. 2B Tyler Wade
9. 3B Miguel Andujar

LHP CC Sabathia

Toronto Blue Jays
1. DH Steve Pearce
2. LF Teoscar Hernandez
3. 1B Justin Smoak
4. 3B Yangervis Solarte
5. CF Kevin Pillar
6. SS Aledmys Diaz
7. RF Randall Grichuk
8. C Luke Maile
9. 2B Devon Travis

RHP Aaron Sanchez

Yet another cold and windy day in the New York area. We’ve had like two nice weather days here since February. Anyway, it’s another 6:35pm ET start tonight. I’m a fan and I’m going to enjoy them while the last, because I don’t think they’re going to last much longer. WPIX and MLB Network will have the broadcast. Enjoy the game.

Roster Moves: As expected, Luis Cessa was placed on the 10-day DL with a left oblique strain today, the Yankees announced. That clears a roster spot for Sabathia, who was activated off the disabled list.

Injury Updates: Clint Frazier (concussion) is working out “full bore” in Tampa, and he could begin playing in minor league rehab games very soon according to Boone … Tommy Kahnle has biceps and shoulder tendinitis, and will be shut down ten days. The Yankees don’t believe it’s serious, and Kahnle is expected to miss three weeks or so.

Suspension Update: Tyler Austin’s appeal was heard today. He said he was told a ruling may not be handed down until next week, however. His five-game suspension could be reduced to four games, or maybe even three, but it won’t be wiped away entirely. Austin did charge the mound, after all.

4/19 to 4/22 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

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Pillar. (Ronald Martinez/Getty)

Tonight’s game represents the first game in an eighteen games in eighteen days stretch, as the Yankees will not enjoy another day off until May 7. Will it allow the team to round into form, as players can finally (hopefully) get used to a consistent schedule? Or will it be as draining as most stretches of this nature can be? Either way, this stretch – and this series with the Blue Jays – feels a bit more important than one may’ve expected a couple of weeks ago.

The Last Time They Met

This represents the first rematch of the season for the Yankees, as these teams kicked-off the 2018 season together. They split the series two games apiece, with the Yankees outscoring the Blue Jays 17 to 15. A few notes:

  • Giancarlo Stanton had a hell of a debut in the season opener, going 3-for-5 with a couple of home runs and 4 RBI in the Yankees 6-1 victory. It feels much longer ago, doesn’t it?
  • Tyler Austin got in on the two home run game action in game three, when he took Marco Estrada deep twice.
  • Aaron Judge made his first (and only to-date) start in center in that third game, picking up one putout on one chance. By Baseball-Reference’s all-encompassing fielding metric, his performance was good for -131 runs of value over 1200 innings.
  • Tyler Clippard earned the win for the Blue Jays in game four. I think that was the most upsetting part of the entire series.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales are both on the disabled list, but will be eligible to return during this series. The former’s timetable remains up in the air, though. Troy Tulowitzki is still out due to surgery to remove bone spurs from both feet, and isn’t likely to be back until June.

Their Story So Far

The Blue Jays are 12-5 with a plus-38 run differential, and are currently on a four-game winning streak. They are one of many teams that have enjoyed an extended break, as they had back-to-back-to-back postponements from Saturday through Monday. And that last game was in the Rogers Centre, which had rain and snow issues despite the roof being closed. It really seems like Mother Nature isn’t ready for baseball just yet.

Interestingly enough, former Yankees Curtis Granderson (167 wRC+) and Yangervis Solarte (168 wRC+) have led the way for the Blue Jays offense in the early goings. Though, to be fair, their offense has been fairly stout overall.

The Lineup We Might See

Injuries to Donaldson and Morales have forced manager John Gibbons to be somewhat creative with his lineups, but it has worked out well enough so far. He employs a strict platoon in the leadoff slot, so we’ll probably see this deployment against CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery:

  1. Steve Pearce, DH
  2. Teoscar Hernandez, LF
  3. Justin Smoak, 1B
  4. Yangervis Solarte, 3B
  5. Russell Martin, C
  6. Kevin Pillar, CF
  7. Aledmys Diaz, SS
  8. Randal Grichuk, RF
  9. Devon Travis, 2B

And we’ll see Curtis Granderson leading off against Sonny Gray and Luis Severino.

Marin and Osuna. (Jason Miller/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (6:35 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez

The Yankees hit Sanchez pretty hard in the second game of the season, scoring 4 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks in 5.2 IP. His run prevention numbers improved in two subsequent starts, and he was less hittable – but he has issued 11 walks in 19.2 IP overall, and his velocity dropped by over 2 MPH in his last start. He only threw 36 IP last year, so it’s not surprising to see him struggle a bit out of the gate, but the dip in velocity bears watching.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 4/10) – 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 4 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Marco Estrada

Estrada has been dealing with back spasms since the season began, and had to have his second start pushed back a few days as a result. There’s no indication that he’ll head to the disabled list just yet, but he didn’t look good his last time out and he’s coming off of the worst full season of his career. None of that stopped him from picking up the win against the Yankees on March 31, though, and he was dominant against the Rangers on April 6.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 4/11) – 4.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 5 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Stroman has struggled mightily in his first three outings. He has a 7.98 ERA heading into this start, and he has allowed 28 baserunners (18 hits and 10 walks) in 14.2 IP. The Yankees scored 4 runs in 5 innings against Stroman earlier this season, in what was his best start thus far.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 4/13) – 5.0 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Jaime Garcia

The Yankees missed Garcia in their first meeting with the Blue Jays, as he’s serving as the team’s fifth starter. And he’s essentially been the prototypical fifth starter thus far, going at least 5 innings in each start, and allowing no more than 3 runs in any outing.

Last outing (vs. KCR on 4/17) – 5.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Toronto’s bullpen has been stellar so far, pitching to a 2.22 ERA in 56.2 IP. The group has 56 strikeouts against just 12 walks so far, and ranks third in the majors in WPA. Closer Roberto Osuna is a perfect 5-for-5 in save opportunities, and has yet to surrender a walk or run in 8.1 IP. Ryan Tepera has been serving as the team’s fireman, and has done quite well; that last bit can be said about most everyone, though, as Aaron Loup is the only reliever with an ERA above 2.89.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Kevin Pillar’s defense in center is a sight to behold, and is a default ‘must watch’ for any game involving the Blue Jays. The potential to see as many as six former Yankees in a game on Sunday is kind of intriguing, too.

Giancarlo Stanton’s trouble with the fastball

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(Elsa/Getty)

The first 16 games of the Giancarlo Stanton era have not gone according to plan. Well, 15 of the first 16 games have not gone according to plan. Opening Day was pretty rad. Overall though, Stanton is sitting on a .197/.293/.409 (96 wRC+) batting line with a 38.7% strikeout rate in the early going, and he’s getting booed on a daily basis at Yankee Stadium. It’s dumb, but whatever.

Naturally, there are no shortage of theories why Stanton has started slowly. He can’t handle the pressure of New York, he doesn’t like the cold, his swing is a mess, last year was a fluke, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda. I fall in the “dude, it’s been 16 games, give it time” camp. Stanton didn’t suddenly forget how to play baseball. That doesn’t make his slow start any less frustrating or any less damaging to the team, of course.

One aspect of Stanton’s game is obviously lagging in the early going. He’s not crushing fastballs anymore. You don’t hit 59 homers in a season and average 44 homers per 162 games in your career without being able to murder a mistake fastball out over the plate. So far this season, Stanton has been unable to do that. Look at his numbers against fastballs in the strike zone:

AVG ISO xwOBA Exit Velocity Launch Angle Whiffs per Swing
Stanton 2015-17 .319 .382 .414 95.5 mph 14.1° 23.2%
Stanton 2017 .356 .445 .432 94.6 mph 11.6° 23.3%
Stanton 2018 .267 .200 .293 98.0 mph 11.7° 37.1%
MLB AVG 2018
 .284 .192 .366 91.1 mph 12.6° 16.2%

Stanton annihilated fastballs in the zone in 2017. Again, you don’t hit 59 homers without hammering heaters in the strike zone. Stanton crushed fastballs in the zone in 2015 and 2016 as well, just not as much as he did in 2017. Not surprising. Point is, from 2015-17, Stanton had a ton of success against heaters in the zone. A ton.

This year though, Stanton has been comfortably below average on fastballs in the strike zone in terms of results. A .267 AVG is below average and a .200 ISO is basically average, possibly even slightly below-average once you factor in Yankee Stadium. Also, that whiffs-per-swing rate? Oy vey. It’s way up. More than double the league average more than 50% worse than last year.

The good news? When he does connect with a fastball in the zone, Stanton is hitting it hard and with a similar launch angle as last year. A drop in exit velocity and/or launch angle would be a big red flag(s). The fact he’s still making high-end contact on these pitches when he does connect is reassuring. He’s just not connecting often enough. Not nearly enough.

The question now is why. Why is he swinging and missing on so many fastballs in the zone? Beats me. That’s up to Stanton and hitting coaches Marcus Thames and P.J. Pilittere to figure out. My guess is it is not one thing. Stanton’s probably out of whack mechanically, he’s probably pressing, and facing pitchers he doesn’t have much history with is probably contributing to all this as well.

As long as he’s not injured — a drop in exit velocity and/or launch angle could be a sign of injury, but those numbers are fine — I’m confident Stanton will get things straightened out. He’s slumped before — he’s slumped badly before, this is a dude who once went 0-for-17 with 15 strikeouts — and he’s come out of every time. Stanton went 6-for-12 against the Red Sox last week. You don’t have to go far back to see the last time he looked good at the plate.

Right now, for whatever reason(s), Stanton is not having much success with fastballs in the strike zone, the pitches he should be mashing. Instead, he’s swinging through way too many ’em. He’s only 28, it’s not like we should be worried his bat speed is deteriorating. Stanton has a history of mechanical funks and there’s a pretty good chance he’s pressing at the plate. Give him time, and soon enough a bunch of those empty swings on fastballs in the zone will turn back into loud contact.

Aaron Judge’s continually improving plate discipline

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(Adam Hunger/Getty)

Sixteen games into the 2018 season, the Yankees have been mediocre and Aaron Judge has been awesome. Judge is hitting .339/.480/.593 (193 wRC+) in the early going, which is more or less in line with his numbers prior to the shoulder injury/second half slump last season. Aaron Judge, it appears, really is this damn good. Fun!

As good as Judge’s overall numbers are right now, one number is flying under the radar: 24.0%. His strikeout rate. That’s down from 30.7% last year and 31.7% in the second half last year. We’re only 16 games into the season, so that 24.0% strikeout rate could easily be small sample size noise. It did catch my eye though, so I decided to dig into things a bit.

First things first: Judge is always going to have some swing-and-miss in his game simply because he’s so big and he has a large strike zone to cover. Secondly, Judge is a very disciplined hitter. He led the league with 127 walks last season and he leads the league with 15 walks right now. Getting Judge to expand the zone isn’t easy, especially since he decided to stop chasing out of the zone:

Judge’s swing rate on pitches out of the zone is 21.5%. The league average is 28.6%. Furthermore, on pitches in the strike zone, Judge ranks 13th in baseball with a .460 wOBA and 18th in baseball with a .519 xwOBA. Pitch him out of the zone and he’ll take the walk. Pitch him in the zone and he’s going to hammer the ball. The hallmarks of a great hitter. How do you pitch to this guy?

Since last season right-handed pitchers have been going after Judge with sliders, mostly down and away, which makes sense. Sliders are harder to hit than fastballs, and sliders down and away from same-side pitchers tend to look like hittable fastballs out over the plate before they start sliding. It would be lazy to say Judge struggles against sliders, however. Since the start of last season:

  • Judge vs. sliders: .210 AVG and .167 ISO (.318 xwOBA)
  • MLB vs. sliders: .215 AVG and .148 ISO (.262 xwOBA)

Judge has been a better than average hitter against sliders since Opening Day 2017. He’s also been otherworldly against fastballs (.493 xwOBA), so yeah, keep feeding him sliders. Judge is still going to hurt you, but he’ll probably hurt you less with a slider than he will with a heater. Look how many sliders Judge has seen over his last 70 regular season games or so:

I do not see that changing anytime soon. Judge is going to continue to see lots of sliders, especially from right-handed pitchers. That’s how I’d pitch him. Judge vs. righty sliders is an ongoing battle that will require adjustment after adjustment. Hitting good sliders is not realistic. No one does that. Laying off good sliders, those nasty down and away sliders, would be neat.

As that last graph shows, opponents really started to barrage Judge with sliders in the second half last season. Look at his month-by-month chase rate against right-handed sliders:

  • April 2017: 21.6%
  • May 2017: 31.5%
  • June2017: 22.8%
  • July 2017: 23.6%
  • August 2017: 35.4%
  • September 2017: 17.4%
  • April 2018: 21.4%

Unexpected! The average chase rate for right-on-right sliders is 31.8%. Judge was better than that every month last season except August, which, not coincidentally, was his worst month (90 wRC+). Judge had a ridiculous September, hitting .329/.448/.691 (197 wRC+) with 15 home runs — 15 home runs! — his most homers in any month. It was also the month he most avoided chasing sliders.

This isn’t rocket science. When Judge doesn’t chase those sliders, he tends to be really good. Spitting on sliders out of the zone equals more favorable counts, and more favorable counts means more damage. I was kinda sorta hoping to see a trend here. Few chases early last season, lots of chases in the middle of last season, then few chases late last year and again this year. Alas. Judge had a better than average chase rate every month except August last year.

So far this season Judge has struck out a bit less than last year, mostly because he’s reduced how often he chases anything out of the zone, not just sliders. His contact rate (67.2%) is identical to last year (67.4%) while his chase rate (21.5%) is down quite a bit from last year (26.1%). Judge was one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball last season. This season he’s had even better discipline in the early going, and it’s showing in his overall results.

DotF: Thairo Estrada returns to action in Tampa’s win

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Both RHP Anyelo Gomez and RHP Glenn Otto were placed on the 7-day DL today, it was announced. I have no idea what’s wrong with either guy. Gomez left last night’s start with an injury. Otto made his scheduled start last week and wasn’t put on the disabled list until today. Might be something minor, and they were waiting to see whether it would clear up before his scheduled start today. When it didn’t, he went on the disabled list. Shrugs.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (6-3 loss to Gwinnett)

  • 3B Gleyber Torres: 1-2, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K — that’s eight straight starts at third base
  • C Kyle Higashioka: 0-5, 1 R, 1 SB — Higgy stolen base! … it’s the third of his career and his first since May 2012 … the box score for that game is pretty fun
  • 1B Mike Ford: 1-4, 1 BB, 1 K
  • SS Abi Avelino: 3-4, 1 RBI — got picked off first … hitting .356/.420/.489 through 13 games
  • RHP David Hale: 4 IP, 12 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HB, 6/0 GB/FB — 53 of 84 pitches were strikes (63%)
  • RHP Jonathan Holder: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2/0 GB/FB — 11 of 16 pitches were strikes (69%)
  • RHP Cody Carroll: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1/1 GB/FB — nine pitches, four strikes … the Yankees are down to two healthy 40-man roster pitchers in the minors (Holder and RHP Jonathan Loaisiga), so I wonder if we’ll see Carroll up at some point fairly soon

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