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Greg Bird has had trouble with fastballs since returning from the disabled list

June 20, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

A little more than one month ago, Greg Bird returned to the Yankees after having his second ankle surgery in as many years. Tyler Austin and Neil Walker did okay enough at first base in the interim. Although the Yankees weren’t having trouble scoring runs without him, adding Bird’s lefty power bat to the righty heavy lineup really helps balance things out.

Twenty games into his 2018 season, Bird is hitting .211/.300/.451 (104 wRC+) overall with three home runs, and things have been much better of late. Including the completion of the suspended game, he’s gone 6-for-20 (.300) with three doubles, a homer, five walks, and four strikeouts in the last seven days. Not surprisingly, Bird needed some time to get settled in following ankle surgery. He’s on the path to being dangerous now.

“I’m happy where I’m at right now, but there’s room to get better for sure. Get better, stay the course and turn this thing around,” said Bird to Zach Braziller over the weekend. “I try to figure it out all the time. It’s just the ups and downs. You want to be consistent in this game. I just feel like when you’re coming back like that, there’s more obstacles.”

One thing Bird has not done early in his 2018 season is hit fastballs. He’s hitting .162 with a .189 ISO against heaters so far, whereas the league averages are .265 and .177, respectively. He’s also posted a .301 expected wOBA against fastballs this year. The league average is .365. The results aren’t particularly good because the contact hasn’t been particularly good.

Furthermore, Bird has missed with 20.9% of his swings at fastballs so far this season. The league average is 19.3%. Given what we’ve seen from Bird the last few years, I don’t think it’ll surprise you to learn that most of his whiffs against heaters have come on pitches up in the zone. Here are the pitch locations of his whiffs on fastballs (colored by pitch velocity):

As soon as he got to the big leagues in 2015, pitchers started attacking Bird with elevated fastballs. Teams scout the minor leagues like crazy these days. When a kid comes up, they already have a book on him, and those elevated heaters are Bird’s weakness. Is it something he can correct? Possibly. Elevated fastballs are hard to hit, especially when behind in the count.

Anyway, Bird has not hit fastballs in the early going and the swings and misses concern me more than the low AVG and ISO, especially since so many of those swings and misses in the plot above are 92-94 mph. A 92-94 mph heater over the plate is a pitch I want Bird to hammer. We know Bird, when he’s healthy and right at the plate, can murder fastballs. Quality fastballs too. Need I remind you?

Bird can hit fastballs. He just hasn’t since coming back from the disabled list. There’s a big difference between not being able to do something and not doing something at this moment. Bird is not hitting fastballs at this point in time. It doesn’t mean he won’t hit fastballs forever.

The question is why isn’t Bird hitting fastballs right now? I’m inclined to say this is all small sample size noise. Not just small sample size noise, but small sample size noise from a dude who recently returned from ankle surgery. Simply put, Bird is not yet in midseason form. Ankle surgery is not nothing — if you don’t have a solid base underneath you, you’re not going to hit properly — and he’s just coming back from (another) one.

You’re welcome to feel differently, but I think we’re very far away from saying Bird has a problem with fastballs. Is he susceptible to elevated fastballs? Yes. Lots of hitters are. But do those swings and misses at 92-94 mph heaters out over the plate point to a larger problem? It’s always possible, sure. We need more information though. No one ever likes to hear this, but the best thing the Yankees can do is be patient. Give Bird time and let him figure it out.

Starter or reliever, Sheffield is likely to help the Yankees at some point in 2018

June 20, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Later tonight, rookie right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga will make his second big league start, and it’ll be his 13th career start above the short season minor leagues. The kid came back from Tommy John surgery last year and zoomed through the minors, and given the way he pitched in his MLB debut last time out, it was easy to see why. Loaisiga was great.

Also later tonight, left-hander Justus Sheffield will make his eighth career start at the Triple-A level, all this season. Loaisiga is a fast riser in the farm system but Sheffield remains the organization’s top pitching prospect. He owns a 3.03 ERA (3.26 FIP) with 33 strikeouts in 32.2 Triple-A innings around a relatively minor shoulder injury so far this year.

It is not a coincidence Loaisiga and Sheffield are lined up to pitch the same day. Or at least it’s not entirely a coincidence. Loaisiga is new to the big league rotation and if he can’t cut it — he skipped right over Triple-A, remember — the Yankees will be able to plug Sheffield into Loaisiga’s rotation spot easily. They’re lined up perfectly.

“If you’re at Triple-A, at the very least, you’re in play all the time for every day if something happens up here. Just ask (Ryan) Bollinger,” said Brian Cashman to Brendan Kuty over the weekend when asked about a potential Sheffield call-up. A call-up is not imminent, but if the Yankees need Sheffield, they’ll bring him up.

One thing is clear: Sheffield’s stuff is big league ready. He’s mid-90s with his fastball and his slider is a legitimate putaway pitch against both righties and lefties. The changeup is not on par with the slider, but it is a reliable third pitch. Here’s Sheffield flashing the goods in Spring Training:

The question is not Sheffield’s stuff. The only question, really, is whether his command is big league ready. His 12.5% walk rate with the RailRiders is high — Sheffield has a 9.8% walk rate above Single-A ball — but walk rate is not a command stat. It’s a control stat. There is no command stat. (Baseball Prospectus is trying.)

We know the Yankees don’t consider Sheffield’s command big league ready at the moment because they didn’t call him up when Masahiro Tanaka went down. They deemed Loaisiga, despite all his injuries and inexperience, the more MLB ready player. The Yankees are pretty darn good at self-scouting. When they call dudes up, they have a tendency to produce right away. It’s pretty remarkable, really. They’re pretty good at knowing when guys are ready.

Right now Sheffield is not ready in the team’s opinion, and that is perfectly fine. He is a just turned 22-year-old kid who is more than four years younger than the average International League player. Sheffield is right where he needs to be at this point of his career. In fact, he’s probably a little ahead of schedule. There were eight high school pitchers taken in the first round of the 2014 draft and only two (Sheffield and Michael Kopech) have reached Triple-A.

Sheffield is not big league ready right now according to the Yankees. How long until he is big league ready? Well, that’s up to Sheffield. Once he irons out his command, he’ll get the call. He might get the call before that, but I’m guessing the Yankees would prefer to avoid that scenario. That means another injury or something like that. Could take Sheffield a month to get his command where he needs to be. Or maybe a week! That’d be cool.

One thing to keep in mind here: Sheffield’s command may not be ready for starting duty. But what about the bullpen? Relievers can get away with poor command — Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances are examples 1A and 1B here — as long as they miss bats and limit hard contact, and Sheffield definitely does the former. His 28.8% strikeout rate and 13.0% swing-and-miss rate will play, especially from the left side.

The Yankees don’t really need another reliever. There is always room for improvement and if they can upgrade the bullpen at the trade deadline, they should do it. They’re not desperate for late-inning relief the same way teams like, say, the Dodgers and Astros are though. If Sheffield is not needed in the rotation during the summer, giving him a look in relief in September is definitely worthwhile. Maybe he’ll sneak onto the postseason roster. That’s be neat.

I’m not sure I like the idea of bringing Sheffield up to work in relief prior to September though. If that happens, it probably means some bullpen regulars are hurt or ineffective, and that would stink. Also, give the kid as many innings as possible as a starter so he can develop in that role. Should Sheffield bump up against his innings limit at some point — his career high is 127.2 innings in 2015 — then yeah, letting him finish the year in relief make sense. Otherwise stick with the starter development path.

At some point this season we’re likely to see Justus Sheffield in the Bronx. I think the chances are pretty darn high. Possibly as a starter if Loaisiga falters, possibly as a reliever in September, possibly a little of both. Sheffield will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, so adding him to the 40-man roster early is a non-issue. Get him up, give him a taste of the show, then get ready to turn him loose in 2019.

Taking stock of the Yankees’ trade chips prior to the deadline

June 20, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

We are less than six weeks away from the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline and already the trade winds are beginning to blow. The Rays sent Denard Span and Alex Colome to the Mariners a few weeks ago, and the Royals have since gotten in on the act by trading Jon Jay to the Diamondbacks and Kelvin Herrera to the Nationals. The sellers are starting to sell.

The Yankees, clearly, will be buyers prior to the trade deadline. Starting pitching is an obvious need. Adding a reliever could be worthwhile too. It is entirely possible other needs will pop up over the next few weeks as well. The Yankees have luxury tax payroll space and a deep cache of prospects, which allows them to buy basically whatever they want at the deadline. They can get anyone.

“Clearly starting pitching was always a concern. It’s definitely one of the areas we’re going to be looking at,” said Hal Steinbrenner to Scott Orgera at the quarterly owners’ meetings last week. “Purposely left a decent amount of money for just this. If we decide to go get a pitcher and if a pitcher’s available, I think we definitely have the flexibility that would allow me to do just that.”

While no player is ever truly untouchable, the Yankees do have some untouchables. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino are as untouchable as it gets and Gleyber Torres has joined that group as well. “Come on now. I’ve got to walk around this city,” joke Brian Cashman to Erik Boland the other day when asked whether trading Torres is a possibility. Even with those guys off the table, the Yankees have plenty of trade chips. Let’s take stock.

The Andujar Question

Might as well start here. The Yankees reportedly made Miguel Andujar off-limits in trade talks over the winter and we’ve seen why so far this season. Even with a tiny little recent slump, Andujar is still hitting .290/.317/.519 (125 wRC+) with an 18.1% strikeout rate. A .229 ISO and an 18.1% strikeout rate is one hell of a combination for a rookie. We’ve also seen Andujar hit all types of pitching already.

That said, should Andujar be off-limits? You could argue his trade value is higher right now than ever before because he’s had some big league success and is still so young with so much team control. Andujar’s probably never going to walk much and his defense, which is serviceable, might never be better than, well, serviceable. I’m not saying the Yankees should give Andujar away. I love the kid. I’m just saying he’s not as untouchable as Torres.

The Top Chips

Brandon Drury’s presence is the reason Andujar should not be untouchable. The Yankees have an MLB ready third baseman — their Opening Day third baseman, in fact — stashed in Triple-A. Drury is only 25 himself and, with another two weeks or so in the minors, his free agency will be pushed back one year. He’s hitting .360/.470/.529 (187 wRC+) with the RailRiders, and while that’s great, I’d expect a dude with two-plus years as an everyday big leaguer to wreck Triple-A pitching. That’s what Drury is doing.

Ostensibly, Drury does not have as much trade value as Andujar because he’s a little older and doesn’t come with as much team control. He is very clearly a trade chip though. The Yankees can’t keep him in Triple-A much longer. I mean, they could, but at some point there are diminishing returns. I’m not sure Drury is learning much or developing new skills right now. We are fast approaching the point where the Yankees either have to trade him or call him up before he starts to stagnate.

Among the guys we know the Yankees are willing to deal, Clint Frazier is the best trade chip. He’s 23, he’s been destroying Triple-A, he’s had some MLB success, and he’s not far removed from being a top prospect. The Yankees have a full outfield. As much as I would love the Yankees to get Frazier into the lineup on an everyday basis next year, they would be crazy to make him untouchable at the deadline. They reportedly offered him to the Pirates in a potential Gerrit Cole deal and he’s playing center field in Triple-A in what amounts to showcase. He’s available.

Justus Sheffield is, by no small margin, the top pitching prospect in the farm system. He was said to be on the team’s list of untouchables over the winter, though pitchers break and have such a high attrition rate — Sheffield has some command issues himself — that it would be silly to make him off-limits. If the Yankees have a chance to add a quality young pitcher like, say, Blake Snell, of course you trade Sheffield. We’re all hoping Sheffield one day turns into Snell! So trade him for the real Snell. The Yankees won’t deal Sheffield for a rental. But a young guy with years of team control? All bets are off.

The Second Tier

A few months ago Estevan Florial would’ve been among the top chips. Right now he’s coming back from wrist surgery — a fairly common wrist surgery, but still wrist surgery — and his swing-and-miss issues still exist. Because of that, I think he’s more of a second tier trade chip right. I don’t think Florial can headline a package for an impact pitcher at the moment. I also don’t think the Yankees will move him while his stock is down, unless it’s a deal they can’t refuse.

Many of the second tier guys are MLB ready or near MLB ready depth pieces. Tyler Wade. Billy McKinney. Chance Adams. None of them can headline a package for an impact player right now, but a deal for a lesser player? Or as the second or third piece in a larger trade? For sure. Wade is a legitimate shortstop and middle infielder with speed and those guys are hard to find. McKinney has a sweet swing and some power. I’m sure some teams still buy Adams as a starter. Good depth players who the Yankees can’t fit on the roster. Of course they’re available.

Among their tippy top prospects, I get the sense the Yankees are more willing to deal Albert Abreu than anyone. He’s had some injuries — this year’s appendectomy is nothing, but last year he had elbow and lat problems — and while the stuff is excellent, the command is far from it. Between the injuries, the lack of command, and the distance to the big leagues (he’s in High-A), Abreu strikes me as a top 100 caliber prospect the Yankees would be very open to moving. He has a long way to go to be the pitcher he has the potential to be and the Yankees are in win-now mode.

The Impending Rule 5 Draft Guys

When you have a great farm system, you’re going to lose players in the Rule 5 Draft. There aren’t enough roster spots to go around and the system is designed to give blocked players an opportunity. The Yankees lost eight total players in the last two Rule 5 Drafts (four each year), six more than any other team. Seven of those eight players came back — Luis Torres is the only exception — but still. You don’t want to risk losing players for nothing.

As a result, the Yankees have been active trading fringe 40-man roster players in recent years. That way they get something in return rather than potentially nothing. Zack Littell went to the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade, and Ian Clarkin and Tito Polo went to the White Sox in the big Todd Frazier trade. They were traded weeks before they had to be added to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes. Here are this offseason’s notable Rule 5 Draft eligibles:

Catchers: None
Infielders: Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, Kyle Holder, Hoy Jun Park
Outfielders: Florial (I think)
Pitchers: Abreu, Adams, Sheffield, Cody Carroll, Juan De Paula, Freicer Perez (I think), Josh Rogers, Dillon Tate

Two names immediately jump out as potential “trade them before you have to add them to the 40-man roster” candidates: Rogers and Tate. Rogers is the left-handed Littell to me. Great minor league performance to date, good pitchability, not blow-you-away stuff. I don’t think it’s crazy to worry his lack of grounders (39.9% in Triple-A) and lack of swings and misses (9.0%) won’t translate well to Yankee Stadium, even as a lefty.

As for Tate, he was the fourth overall pick in the draft three years ago and he’s been very good this season, throwing 66.2 innings with a 3.11 ERA (3.38 FIP) at Double-A. You’d like to see more strikeouts (22.9%) from a dude with his stuff, but the walk (5.9%) and ground ball (50.8%) numbers are good. I wonder if this is a situation where his trade value exceeds his real life value. There’s a decent chance Tate is a reliever long-term. A good one, but still a reliever. Another club might view him as a no-doubt starter and fall in love with the whole “former No. 4 pick” thing.

Regardless of what the Yankees do with Rogers and Tate — right now I’d bet on Tate being added to the 40-man roster and Rogers not, assuming they aren’t traded — there is going to be some roster shuffling in the coming weeks. A few of these Rule 5 Draft eligibles could be moved prior to the trade deadline or soon after the season. Aside from Sheffield, there’s no stud here that will net you an impact big league player. These guys are for depth moves or to fill out a larger package.

The Lower Level Guys

Moreso than ever before, teams are taking very low level minor leaguers in trades. And I don’t mean low level as in not highly regarded. I mean the low levels of the minors. One of the prospects in the Kelvin Herrera trade was a 17-year-old in rookie ball. The second piece in last year’s Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade was an 18-year-old in Single-A. The Yankees traded 20-year-old Blake Rutherford last year.

Teams are trying to acquire these talented young players before they break out into top prospects — the Yankees themselves have done this with the Nick Rumbelow trade (18-year-old Juan Then) and the Jake Cave trade (20-year-old Luis Gil) — and the Yankees have some of these players to offer, I think. Then is one. So is Saul Torres, Alex Vargas, Roansy Contreras, and Pablo Olivares. Guys like that are involved in trades more than ever before.

Could Luis Medina, Everson Pereira, or Ezequiel Duran be trade chips? They’re all teenagers and they’re all on the cusp of becoming excellent prospects, but of course they’re trade chips. The Yankees are a bona fide World Series contender. They’d be nuts to let a teenager in rookie stand in the way of a win-now trade. I’m not saying they should give those guys away! But they have value and they’re in demand, and they’re so far away from the big leaguers that they can’t be untouchable.

* * *

Trading players off your big league roster is not usually something a contending team does, but it is definitely possible. Neil Walker could go in a deal to offset salary a la Tyler Clippard last year, for example. I’d be surprised if the Yankees traded a reliever. I’d be even more surprised if they traded Sonny Gray, even in a deal for another starter. To me, the master plan is add a starter and get Gray on track, not replace Gray.

Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga are on the big league roster right now — they’re not just on the roster, they’re making starts every fifth day — and they’re trade chips for sure. German has shown promising swing-and-miss ability and everyone loves Johnny Lasagna, but they both have scary injury histories, and if they can help the Yankees get a potential difference-maker, of course they’ll trade ’em.

All of that is the long way of saying the Yankees have trade chips in all shapes and sizes. Once upon a time they were dealing from a pool of, like, three desirable prospects. Now they have pitchers, position players, MLB ready guys, far away guys, you name it. The Yankees can meet pretty much any asking price. That doesn’t mean they will. If the Yankees lose a bidding war this year, it’ll be because they don’t want to give up the pieces, not because they don’t have the pieces.

Yankees 7, Mariners 2: Dominant Domingo and the Dingers

June 19, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The headline is my new band. Spread the word. Anyway, good game, would watch again. The Yankees handled the Mariners — the 102-win pace Mariners — with relative ease Tuesday night. The final score was 7-2. The Yankees are 26 games over .500 four weeks before the All-Star Game.

The Obligatory First Inning Run
Maybe Domingo German needs an opener? For the third straight start and the fourth time in his eight starts, German allowed a first inning run(s) Tuesday night. It was just one run and it didn’t come on a homer — those have been an issue at times — so I guess that’s good? As a starter, German now has a 7.88 ERA in the first inning and an 4.50 ERA thereafter. That’s … better?

Even though the run was earned, you can blame the defense for the first inning. German did allowed a two-strike leadoff hustle double to Dee Gordon, so that’s bad, but the big mistake was Didi Gregorius booting Jean Segura’s grounder. Gordon broke for third and Didi had him dead to rights. Too bad he booted the ball. No out recorded. Sigh. Miguel Andujar couldn’t handle Mitch Haniger’s line drive next — hit him in a bad spot, right in the glove — and Gordon scored. SIGH.

Fortunately, German settled down after that, and settling down is something we’ve seen the kid do quite a bit lately. And holy crap, he REALLY settled down. After the Haniger’s liner clanked off Andujar’s glove in the first inning, German retired the next 18 (!) batters he faced. I’m think that ties Sonny Gray for the longest single-game consecutive batters retired streak by a Yankee this season. Gray went 18 up, 18 down to start that game in Kansas City a few weeks ago.

The Mariners finally broke through against German in the seventh inning, when Nelson Cruz lifted a one-out solo homer into the first row in left field. It was, by far, the shortest homer hit in the game. The Yankees were up 5-1 at that point, so no big deal. Solo homers ain’t nothin’. German closed out the inning to end his night. His final line: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, 1 HR on 96 pitches. He generated another 17 swings and misses. The breakdown:

Fastballs: 3 whiffs on 18 swings (43 total thrown)
Curveball: 10 whiffs on 18 swings (36 total thrown)
Changeup: 4 whiffs on 10 swings (17 total thrown)

German threw Haniger a nasty 3-2 changeup to start the seventh inning and Haniger was about a mile out in front. Awesome to see the kid have the confidence to throw a 3-2 changeup to the other team’s best hitter leading off an inning. With a four-run lead, that’s usually a “I’m not walking you so here’s a 3-2 fastball” spot. German’s up to 28 strikeouts in his last three starts and 19 innings. Only two walks too. Kid’s a keeper. The stuff is sooo good.

Bombs Away
The shoddy defense put the Yankees in an early 1-0 hole. They answered right back. Giancarlo Stanton golfed a low Marco Gonzales curveball into Monument Park for a quick game-tying solo home run in the bottom of the first. Leadoff singles were wasted in the second and third innings, annoyingly. The fifth inning is when the offense really broke out.

It all started with a walk too. A great walk. Greg Bird fell behind in the count 0-2, then battled back against the lefty Gonzalez to draw the free pass. Bird hung in well against the southpaw after falling behind in the count. The next batter, the slumping Miguel Andujar, worked a 2-2 count before golfing — and I really mean golfing here — a low curveball into the left field bleachers for a two-run home run and a 3-1 lead. Look at this:

Yeah. That’s bonkers. Working the count — that’s a pitch a batter should take, you know? — is wonderful and important, but part of me loves having a hacker and a bad ball hitter like Andujar in the lineup. Seems like that dude can make contact with anything anywhere and drive it with authority. Nice like change of pace from the rest of the lineup, which is loaded with count workers.

Anyway, the Andujar dinger gave the Yankees a 3-1 lead. Clint Frazier poked a single the other way as the next batter, then Aaron Hicks clubbed a hanging changeup into the visitor’s bullpen for another two-run homer and a 5-1 lead. He didn’t have to go down and golf it out like Stanton or especially Andujar. The first pitch changeup was elevated enough that it probably looked like a batting practice fastball. The homer ball got stuck in the bullpen bench:

That’s four homers in the last six days for Hicks, who also had a single and a double Tuesday. Hard to believe so many people don’t like this guy. After missing out on some opportunities in the early innings, the offense made up for it in the fifth. Three singles (Andujar, Frazier, Judge) drove in an insurance run in the seventh to make it 6-2. Then Gleyber Torres socked a solo homer (off former Yankee Nick Rumbelow) into the left field bleachers for another insurance run in the eighth. Hooray dingers!

Gleyber, where does every other team have to look to see the Yankees in the standings? (Presswire)

Leftovers
Is the offense finally starting to snap out of it? I hope so. Tuesday was the first time the Yankees scored at least six runs in a game since the first game of the doubleheader in Detroit on June 4th. It was also the first time they had double-digit hits since the June 2nd finale of the rain shortened series in Baltimore. They played 14 times between 10+ hit games and went 10-4, so not the end of the world.

Poor Gary Sanchez. The dude is mired in a long slump and he hit a 121.1 mph — 121.1 mph! — line drive right at Denard Span for an out in the fourth inning. Hardest hit ball in baseball this season by more than a full mile-an-hour. Also tied with Aaron Judge’s 495-foot homer last season for the hardest hit non-grounder since Statcast became a thing in 2015. Tough out. Keep hitting them like that Gary and good things will happen.

Welcome back, A.J. Cole. He actually pitched. First appearance since May 28th. May 28th! Six up, six down, three strikeouts to close out the game following German. Cole threw 13 sliders, the Mariners swung at six of them, and they missed four times. Pretty awesome. Based on raw stuff, he’s the best mopup man the Yankees have had in a very long time.

And finally, congrats to Sir Didi Gregorius. This was his 700th career big league game. That’s a nice round number milestone, but, more importantly, he is now the all-time leader in games played among players born in the Netherlands. He broke a tie with Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven tonight. Neat.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
For the box score, go to ESPN. For the video highlights, go to MLB. For the updated standings, go back to ESPN. Here is our Bullpen Workload page and here is the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees and Mariners will continue this three-game series with the middle game Wednesday night. Jonathan Loaisiga will make his second career start in that one. Felix Hernandez will be on the mound for Seattle. Once upon a time that meant an auto-loss for the Yankees.

DotF: Duran, Pereira, Duran make 2018 debuts in Pulaski’s win

June 19, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Couple quick notes to get us started:

Good report from Kiley McDaniel on RHP Roansy Contreras’ season debut the other day. He says the 18-year-old was 94-97 mph with his heater, with a slider that flashed 60 and a changeup that flashed 50 on the 20-80 scouting scale. That’s an above-average fastball, a potentially above-average slider, and a potentially average changeup.
SS Thairo Estrada may be done for the season. Triple-A Scranton manager Bobby Mitchell told DJ Eberle that Estrada has a back issue and it’ll be difficult for him to return before the end of the year. Thairo was originally placed on the Triple-A disabled list with a wrist issue.
As for RHP Erik Swanson, he is on the Triple-A disabled list with a groin issue, reports Conor Foley. That stinks, but it is good news in that it’s not his arm. He’s had elbow trouble in the past. Sounds like Swanson could miss a few weeks.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (7-5 loss to Lehigh Valley)

CF Tyler Wade: 1-1, 2 R, 4 BB
LF Mark Payton: 2-5, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBI — got picked off first … I expected some team to give him a look as a Rule 5 Draft fourth or fifth outfielder these last few years, but it hasn’t happened
3B Brandon Drury: 0-5, 2 K
1B Tyler Austin: 2-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 E (fielding) — here’s video of the homer
RF Billy McKinney: 0-3, 1 BB, 2 K
C Kyle Higashioka: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 E (throwing)
RHP Chance Adams: 4 IP, 3 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 1 K, 7/3 GB/FB — 55 of 89 pitches were strikes (62%) … 5.21 ERA and 71/31 K/BB in 65.2 innings
RHP Tommy Kahnle: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0/2 GB/FB — 18 of 25 pitches were strikes (72%) … 9/3 K/BB in six innings down here

[Read more…]

Game 70: Back in the Bronx

June 19, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The Yankees are back in New York after that quick game and a half trip to Washington interrupted what was originally a seven-game homestand. The Mariners — the contending (!) Mariners — are in town to begin a three-game series tonight. They have the longest postseason drought not only in baseball, but all North American sports. The Mariners haven’t played postseason baseball since Ichiro’s rookie year in 2001.

Seattle has the AL’s second best record since Robinson Cano was suspended, though that’s selling them short. They are 35-16 since April 16th, the best record in the league behind the Yankees (35-13). Also, Mariners’ second basemen are hitting .238/.264/.279 since Cano got suspended, so let’s cool it with the “they’re better off without Cano!” narrative that’s brewing.

Anyway, enough about the Mariners. The Yankees are still trying to get their offense back on track, which will happen soon enough because there’s just too much talent on the roster. Every team goes through (multiple) offensive funks each season. The Yankees are going through one now. Can’t think of a better time to snap out of it than tonight. Here are the starting lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Aaron Hicks
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. DH Giancarlo Stanton
4. SS Didi Gregorius
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. 2B Gleyber Torres
7. 1B Greg Bird
8. 3B Miguel Andujar
9. LF Clint Frazier

RHP Domingo German

Seattle Mariners
1. 2B Dee Gordon
2. SS Jean Segura
3. RF Mitch Haniger
4. DH Nelson Cruz
5. 3B Kyle Seager
6. 1B Ryon Healy
7. LF Denard Span
8. C Mike Zunino
9. CF Guillermo Heredia

LHP Marco Gonzales

Another hot day in New York today, though at least there’s a little bit of a breeze. Baseball weather in the Bronx. Tonight’s series opener will begin at 7:05pm ET and you can watch on YES. Enjoy the game.

Injury Update: Brett Gardner (knee) ran the bases and hit today, and he is available off the bench tonight, if necessary. The hope is he’ll be back in the starting lineup tomorrow.

All-Star Voting Update: MLB released the second AL update for the All-Star fan voting earlier today. Aaron Judge is the only Yankee in line to start the All-Star Game. Gary Sanchez has slipped narrowly behind Wilson Ramos at catcher. Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, and Giancarlo Stanton are all distant seconds at their positions. Didi Gregorius is fourth among shortstops. Judge has a comfortable lead on an outfield starting spot. Here’s the All-Star ballot.

6/19 to 6/21 Series Preview: Seattle Mariners

June 19, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Dee Gordon and Jean Segura. (Lindsey Wasson/Getty)

Worry not, dear reader, for the dreaded trip to Seattle (and Oakland) isn’t until September. That doesn’t necessarily make this match-up any better, though.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Mariners for a three-game Players Weekend set last August, picking up two wins and outscoring the visiting club by 11 runs. Some other notes from the series:

The first game of the series was one of the most frustrating in recent memory. The Yankees left thirteen runners on-base in total, and left the bases loaded three times. Aroldis Chapman, who lost his job as closer a week earlier, surrendered a go-ahead (and game-winning) pinch-hit home run in the 11th. Ugh.
Greg Bird returned to the lineup after missing nearly four months of action in the second game, and he looked pretty good. He went 1-for-2 with two walks and a run scored, and played all nine innings at first.
That second game also included somebody named ‘Jacoby Ellsbury’ going 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBI. That guy went 4-for-10 in the series as a whole, with a double, that home run, a walk, and 6 RBI.
Seattle made five errors in one inning in the third game, which made things pretty easy for the Yankees offense. Masahiro Tanaka twirled a gem, as well, tossing 7 innings of 1 run ball, and striking out 10.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

The Mariners have half of a bullpen on the DL, with Dan Altavilla, David Phelps, Erasmo Ramirez, and Nick Vincent out with a variety of ailments. Phelps had Tommy John Surgery in March, so he won’t be back any time soon, and Altavilla has a nebulously named “mass sprain” in his elbow, so his return is up in the air, as well. The other two could be back this month, but probably not in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

Seattle is 46-26 with a +22 run differential, good for second-place in both the AL West and the AL Wild Card race. They’ve overachieved quite a bit relative to their Pythagorean expectations, which place them as a 38-34 team. That’s not shocking, considering that they have the 4th best winning percentage in baseball, and the 12th best run differential.

The Mariners are basically a middle of the pack team, sitting 12th in runs allowed, 13th in runs scored, and 22nd in defensive runs saved. Their biggest strength as of now is the bullpen, which is among the five-best in the game by pretty much every measure. That isn’t to say that their offense or starting pitching is bad; rather, that it’s good enough to be put over the top by a light’s out bullpen. And that’s been the key to their success so far.

All that being said, their biggest story so far may well be Robinson Cano’s 80-game suspension for violating the league’s joint drug agreement. He’s not eligible to return until August 14 and, when he does, he might not get his full-time job back.

The Lineup We Might See

Third-year manager Scott Servais has had a fairly steady hand with his lineup card, as the only real shake-up was the result of Cano’s suspension. We’ll probably see something like this:

Dee Gordon, 2B – .290/.311/.361, 1 HR, 19 SB
Jean Segura, SS – .340/.363/.490, 6 HR, 14 SB
Mitch Haniger, RF – .269/.357/.512, 16 HR, 3 SB
Nelson Cruz, DH – .249/.339/.521, 17 HR, 1 SB
Kyle Seager, 3B – .224/.272/.413, 12 HR, 1 SB
Ryon Healy, 1B – .257/.288/.485, 13 HR, 0 SB
Ben Gamel, LF – .297/.371/.406, 1 HR, 5 SB
Mike Zunino, C – .207/.266/.445, 11 HR, 0 SB
Guillermo Heredia, CF – .241/.343/.348, 2 HR, 1 SB

Denard Span (.259/.368/.415, 6 HR, 6 SB) could see some time in left, as well.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Marco Gonzales

Despite being a top-50 prospect a few years ago, Gonzales never received much of an opportunity with his original organization, the Cardinals. He was shipped to Seattle for prospect Tyler O’Neill last July, and the Mariners stuck him in the rotation. Things were a bit rocky last season, but Gonzales has been very good in 2018, pitching to a 3.42 ERA (117 ERA+) and 3.20 FIP in 79.0 IP. His 21.1% strikeout rate is right around league-average, and his 46.8% groundball rate and 5.8% walk rate are comfortably better than average.

Gonzales is a true five-pitch guy, working with a low-90s four-seamer, low-90s sinker, high-80s cutter, mid-80s change, and high-70s curve. Much of his success this year has been attributed to that cutter, which he only starting throwing this past off-season.

Last outing (vs. LAA on 6/13) – 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 7 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Jonathan Loaisiga vs. RHP Felix Hernandez

The once-dominant King Felix is a shell of his former self at 32, sporting a 98 ERA+ since Opening Day 2015. This has been his worst season to-date, though, as he has a 5.44 ERA (73 ERA+) and 4.67 FIP in 84.1 IP, having allowed four or more runs in 7 of his 15 starts. He does have a 4.00 ERA in June, though, with two strong outings sandwiched around a 3-inning, 6-run effort on June 9, so the flashes are still there … to some degree.

Hernandez’s once elite velocity is gone nowadays, as his four-seamer averages 90.3 MPH this year, a full MPH lower than 2017. He still throws the same arsenal, albeit with a reduced velocity – that four-seamer, a high-80s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and a high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 6/14) – 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Thursday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP James Paxton

Paxton struck out 16 A’s on May 2 and followed that up by no-hitting the Blue Jays his next time out, in the midst of an utterly dominant stretch that saw him pitch to a 1.75 ERA in 56.2 IP. He’s been mortal around those eight games, though, and that’s largely been the story of his career. And he’s never faced the Yankees.

Paxton is primarily a three-pitch guy, focusing on his mid-90s four-seamer, high-80s cutter, and big-breaking, low-80s curve. He’ll also throw a mid-90s sinker and a mid-80s change-up, but those are oftentimes little more than show-me pitches.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 6/15) – 2.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 1 BB 4 K

The Bullpen

Edwin Diaz is the closer, and his numbers are kind of absurd. He has more than three times as many strikeouts (62) as hits allowed (20), and he’s striking out 42.5% of all batters. He already has 27 saves, which is five more than the second-place Craig Kimbrel, and his 2.56 WPA is ninth among all pitchers.

James Pazos (1.48 ERA in 24.1 IP) and Chasen Bradford (3.21 ERA in 28.0 IP) have done the heavy lifting behind Diaz, and they’ve been very good so far. The rest of the bullpen has been something of a revolving door due to the aforementioned injuries, but the newly acquired Alex Colome (3.68 ERA in 7.1 IP for the Mariners) has high-leverage experience.

Yankees Connection

A few have been mentioned so far – Cano, Ben Gamel (parts of seven years), and James Pazos (six years) were all brought-up through the Yankees organization. You’ll also remember Nick Rumbelow, who rode the shuttle for the Yankees in 2015 and was dealt to Seattle last November; you may not remember Wade LeBlanc, who pitched one awful inning for the good guys back in 2014 and was a non-roster invite to Spring Training this year. He has a 2.63 ERA (152 ERA+) in fourteen games this year, because of course he does.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Paxton’s curve is a sight to behold, and Diaz is just filthy all-around; hopefully the Yankees won’t have to see him at all this week. And Gordon and Segura have a vibe that’s not all that different from Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, if you’re into that sort of thing.

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